Imagining the world after coronavirus, part 3

What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures
by Simon Mair, Research Fellow in Ecological Economics, Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey
The Conversation, 30 March 2020
From an economic perspective, there are four possible futures: a descent into barbarism, a robust state capitalism, a radical state socialism, and a transformation into a big society built on mutual aid. Versions of all of these futures are perfectly possible, if not equally desirable.

“Over [the last 40 years], markets and exchange values have been seen as the best way of running an economy. Consequently, public systems have come under increasing pressures to marketise, to be run as though they were businesses who have to make money. Likewise, workers have become more and more exposed to the market – zero-hours contracts and the gig economy have removed the layer of protection from market fluctuations that long term, stable, employment used to offer.

COVID-19 appears to be reversing this trend, taking healthcare and labour goods out of the market and putting it into the hands of the state. States produce for many reasons. Some good and some bad. But unlike markets, they do not have to produce for exchange value alone.”

The world remade by COVID-19 – Scenarios for resilient leaders
Salesforce | Deloitte, 6 April 2020
This document explores various scenarios about how the COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate or redirect social and business changes over the next three to five years. While some of those trends may have already been in motion, others could be initiated by public and private reactions to the pandemic.

How the design of businesses, services & social innovation can support during the COVID-19 emergency and shape a post-crisis society
By Jessie Johnson
Design Council, 3 April 2020
On Thursday, 26th March, Design Council convened its network of experts through a series of remote roundtables. Key topics on the table spanned from getting equipment and resources to those most in need through to a total redesign of services as we currently know them. Two key themes came from the conversation: what is the role of design and designers in the more immediate term and how might we support communities, businesses and government to reimagine what a post COVID-19 future might look like? 

How the design of places can support the COVID-19 emergency and shape a post-crisis society
By Catherine Horwill
Design Council, 3 April 2020
A few days into the COVID-19 lockdown, Design Council virtually gathered a group of Built Environment Experts to harness their shared brainpower and conceive meaningful ways in which we, as a collective group and national organisation, could provide immediate help. 

Dalla pandemia a un nuovo modello di crescita: “Green/New Deal” per ripartire
da Lelio Demichelis, Docente di Sociologia economica Dipartimento di Economia- Università degli Studi dell’Insubria – Agenda Digitale, 7 Aprile 2020
La pandemia può essere occasione per ripensare umanisticamente al lavoro e alle persone che lavorano, per rivedere radicalmente il nostro modello sempre più insostenibile di crescita e di consumo, modello che con la pandemia e con i modi con cui si è diffusa ha molto a che fare. Un Green Deal è sempre più necessario

[Riflessioni] La sfida che ci attende post Covid-19: elaborare una nuova idea di umanità
Una conversazione sul presente e il futuro con Marco Aime, docente di antropologia culturale presso l’Università di Genova
da Vittoria Azzarita – AG|Cult, 30 Marzo 2020
In this [Italian language] interview with Marco Aime, anthropologist, writer and professor of cultural anthropology at the University of Genoa, we try to understand the post Covid-19 scenario, starting from a discussion about the ways in which we – as humans – are reacting to the exceptional situation of these days. Strongly interested in the relationship between culture and processes of change, Marco Aime invites us to reflect on our idea of humanity and on the urgency of carrying out a real cultural revolution, because “if this pandemic does not make us reflect on certain issues, it will cause a double damage: from the medical-health point of view; and from a cultural perspective”.

Un Design Post Pandemico
da Mirco Pasqualini – Medium, 7 Aprile 2020
[I am adding these here as a piece of interest, although it is not clear to me what the premises are that these conjectures are based on. It is more a piece of trendcasting than a serious foresight reflection.]
Quali sono le aree in cui esistono già segnali di cambiamento ma che ancora non sono state affrontate e ripensate? Per cosa dovremmo “progettare per” questo nuovo domani? Quali diventeranno fattori di differenziazione per brands, di competitività per molti businesses e opportunità per new ventures?
Molte delle considerazioni qui riportate forse potranno essere incomplete, ed alcune richiederebbe approfondimenti più dettagliati, ma di certo sufficienti per inquadrare un potenziale futuro.